{"id":77217,"date":"2024-07-11T08:05:12","date_gmt":"2024-07-11T05:05:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/?p=77217"},"modified":"2024-07-11T08:05:12","modified_gmt":"2024-07-11T05:05:12","slug":"mevcut-projeksiyona-gore-turkiye-nufusu-2100de-50-milyonun-altina-dusebilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/mevcut-projeksiyona-gore-turkiye-nufusu-2100de-50-milyonun-altina-dusebilir\/","title":{"rendered":"Mevcut projeksiyona g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusu 2100’de 50 milyonun alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015febilir"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hacettepe \u00dcniversitesi N\u00fcfus Et\u00fctleri Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Eryurt, T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusunun 2040’lara yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 88 milyona ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, ard\u0131ndan 2070’lerde 70, 2100’de ise 50 milyonun alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesinin beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/h4>\n

Hacettepe \u00dcniversitesi N\u00fcfus Et\u00fctleri Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Mehmet Ali Eryurt<\/strong>, AA muhabirine, haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u00a0n\u00fcfus projeksiyonu ve T\u00fcrkiye’de do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulundu.<\/p>\n

2022’de d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun 8 milyar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7eken Eryurt, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Hindistan n\u00fcfusunun \u00c7in’i ge\u00e7ti\u011fini, 1979’dan beri tek \u00e7ocuk politikas\u0131 uygulayan \u00c7in’de 2015’te iki \u00e7ocuk politikas\u0131n\u0131n, 2021’den itibaren de \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7ocuk politikas\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 an\u0131msatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’de de son a\u00e7\u0131klanan n\u00fcfus istatistiklerinde \u00fclke n\u00fcfusunun 85 milyonun biraz \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu, ancak n\u00fcfusun bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re sadece 93 bin ki\u015fi artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Eryurt, “Cumhuriyetin 100’\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131l\u0131nda, Cumhuriyet tarihinin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131na tan\u0131k olduk. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan do\u011fum istatistiklerine g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye’de do\u011fum oran\u0131 1,51 \u00e7ocu\u011fa d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Asl\u0131nda 2014’ten beri do\u011fum oranlar\u0131 d\u00fczenli d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimi i\u00e7erisindeydi, 2017 itibar\u0131yla yenilenme d\u00fczeyinin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Son olarak da 1,51 \u00e7ocu\u011fa indi.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\u0130stanbul, Ankara ve \u0130zmir’de do\u011fum oranlar\u0131n\u0131n 1,2 \u00e7ocu\u011fa kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydeden Eryurt, T\u00fcrkiye genelinin, bu 3 ili gecikmeli de olsa takip etti\u011fini ve bu d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filiminin var olan tabloda devam etmesinin beklendi\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

“N\u00fcfus 88 milyona ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra yatay azalan e\u011filime girecek”<\/h3>\n

Prof. Dr. Eryurt, T\u00fcrkiye ile benzer \u00f6zelliklere sahip \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya gibi \u00fclkelerde 10 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde, do\u011fum oranlar\u0131n\u0131n 1,5 \u00e7ocuktan 1,2 \u00e7ocu\u011fa d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye’de do\u011fum oran\u0131n\u0131n 1,2 \u00e7ocu\u011fa d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi ve sonras\u0131nda da sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcyle n\u00fcfus projeksiyonu haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiren Eryurt, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n

“T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusu i\u00e7in uzun s\u00fcredir ‘100 milyona ula\u015f\u0131r m\u0131’ diye bir beklenti s\u00f6z konusuydu. Projeksiyon sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, b\u0131rak\u0131n 100 milyonu 90 milyona ula\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusu 2040’lara do\u011fru yakla\u015f\u0131k 88 milyona ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra yatay azalan bir e\u011filime girecek ve 2050’lere kadar bu \u015fekilde devam edecek. T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusu, 2070’lerin ortas\u0131na do\u011fru 70 milyonun, 2100’de 50 milyonun alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.”<\/p>\n

15 ya\u015f alt\u0131 n\u00fcfusun azalma e\u011filimini h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde devam ettirece\u011fini aktaran Eryurt, projeksiyona g\u00f6re 15 ya\u015f alt\u0131 n\u00fcfusun 2050’de 10 milyona, 2100’de 4 milyona kadar d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

“\u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 n\u00fcfusu, 2050’lere kadar y\u00fczde 60 civar\u0131nda kalacak”<\/h3>\n

Eryurt, 15-64 ya\u015f aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 n\u00fcfusunun bir s\u00fcre ayn\u0131 oranda devam etmesinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkati \u00e7ekerek \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n

“2050’lere kadar \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 n\u00fcfusunun, oransal olarak y\u00fczde 60’lar civar\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz, 2075 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 60’lar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor, 2100’e geldi\u011fimizde y\u00fczde 50’ler seviyesinde oluyor. Say\u0131sal olarak bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 n\u00fcfusu 2075’te 41 milyona, 2100’de 24 milyona kadar d\u00fc\u015fecek. Bu projeksiyon d\u00f6nemi boyunca en h\u0131zl\u0131 artacak n\u00fcfus asl\u0131nda ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfus. 2050’lerin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda her 4 ki\u015fiden birinin, 2070’lerin ortas\u0131nda her 3 ki\u015fiden birinin 2100’lere do\u011fru her 10 ki\u015fiden 4’\u00fcn\u00fcn 65 ya\u015f \u00fczeri n\u00fcfusa dahil olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.”<\/p>\n

“N\u00fcfus piramidinin tersine tan\u0131kl\u0131k etmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z”<\/h3>\n

N\u00fcfus piramidinin ya\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131 olarak tersine d\u00f6nmesinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret eden Eryurt, “2100 y\u0131l\u0131nda bizim 1960-70’lerde sahip oldu\u011fumuz n\u00fcfus piramidinin tersine tan\u0131kl\u0131k etmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z. En kalabal\u0131k grup, en ya\u015fl\u0131 gruplar olacak. T\u00dc\u0130K, her 5 y\u0131lda bir n\u00fcfus piramitlerini revize ediyor. Bildi\u011fim kadar\u0131yla bu ay sonuna do\u011fru payla\u015facaklar. Oradaki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler de asl\u0131nda do\u011furganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimini devam ettirece\u011fi \u015feklinde, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n benzer olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyorum.” \u015feklinde konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Eryurt, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin tamam\u0131nda do\u011fum oranlar\u0131n\u0131n zamana yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere geldi\u011fine, bu de\u011fi\u015fimin T\u00fcrkiye’de \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fine dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

Yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, T\u00fcrkiye’de kad\u0131nlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 45’inin istedi\u011finden az \u00e7ocu\u011fa sahip oldu\u011funu, bu oran\u0131n \u00fcniversite mezunu ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan kad\u0131nlarda y\u00fczde 60’lara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktaran Eryurt, \u00e7iftlerin istedikleri say\u0131da \u00e7ocu\u011fa, istedikleri zaman sahip olmalar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak ko\u015fullar\u0131n ve imkanlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi.<\/p>\n

“En kal\u0131c\u0131 politika bak\u0131m y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc kad\u0131nlar\u0131n \u00fczerinden almak”<\/h3>\n

Prof. Dr. Eryurt, do\u011furganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in al\u0131nabilecek \u00f6nlemlere ili\u015fkin \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulundu:<\/p>\n

“\u00c7iftlerin istedikleri say\u0131da \u00e7ocu\u011fa sahip olmalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde birtak\u0131m engeller var, i\u015f ve aile ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131n uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda birtak\u0131m sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Geli\u015ftirilecek tedbirlerin i\u015f, aile ya\u015fam\u0131 uyumunu, dengesini sa\u011flayacak politikalar olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Burada en \u00f6nemli, en kal\u0131c\u0131 politika, bak\u0131m y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc kad\u0131nlar\u0131n \u00fczerinden biraz almak. Kre\u015f uygulamas\u0131n\u0131, erken \u00e7ocukluk d\u00f6nemindeki \u00e7ocuk bak\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131rmak, kre\u015flerin niteli\u011finin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00fccretlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda kamu taraf\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemli bir politika olacakt\u0131r. Di\u011fer bir politika do\u011fum izni s\u00fcresinin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’de annelik izni s\u00fcresi \u00e7ok k\u0131sa, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki annelik izni s\u00fcrelerinin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda bizdeki s\u00fcreler, bunun 1 y\u0131la \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli ad\u0131m olacakt\u0131r. \u0130lk 6 ay\u0131n\u0131n tamamen \u00fccretli annelik izni \u015feklinde form\u00fcle edilmesi, ikinci 6 ay\u0131nda anne veya baban\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcml\u00fc olarak bu hakk\u0131 kullanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bebe\u011fin mama, beslenme, bez gibi ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaya imkan verecek ‘bebek ikramiyesi’ de \u00e7iftlerin istedikleri say\u0131da \u00e7ocu\u011fa sahip olmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli te\u015fvik olacakt\u0131r.”<\/p>\n

Eryurt, ilgili bakanl\u0131klar\u0131n esnek ve yar\u0131 zamanl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma modelleri \u00fczerinde de \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011funu kaydetti.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: AA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hacettepe \u00dcniversitesi N\u00fcfus Et\u00fctleri Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Eryurt, T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusunun 2040’lara yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 88…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":77218,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,17438],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-manset","category-yasam"],"views":33,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77217","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77217"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77217\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":77219,"href":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77217\/revisions\/77219"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77218"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.haberegider.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}